2022威廉希尔

非线性泛函分析、微分方程与动力系统系列报告

报告题目：Quantifying the impact of mitigation strategies for tuberculosis in China based on an age-structure model

报告人：薛玲  教授 哈尔滨 工程大学

照片：

邀请人：白振国

报告时间：2022年7月5日（周二）下午 14：30-15：30

腾讯会议ID：967-291-142会议密码：123456

报告人简介：薛玲，哈尔滨工程大学数学科学学院教授、博士生导师、生物数学团队学科带头人、黑龙江省工业与应用数学会常务理事、黑龙江省工程与应用重点实验室副主任。2013年在美国堪萨斯州立大学获得博士学位，2014年至2016年，在美国杜兰大学数学系与数学计算科学中心，从事博士后研究工作, 合作导师是James. Mac Hyman教授；2016年至2017年，受到加拿大太平洋数学研究院和加拿大曼尼托巴大学数学系的联合资助，在加拿大曼尼托巴大学数学系与Julien Arino以及Felicia Magpantay共同合作研究。组织了三次国际会议和一次国内会议。在Journal of Differential Equation、SIAM J Appl Math、PloS Neglected Tropical Diseases、Bulletin of Mathematical Biology、Journal of Theoretical Biology、Mathematical Biosciences等杂志发表多篇SCI 论文。目前在研主持国家自然科学基金面上项目。

报告摘要：Although great progress has been made in the prevention and mitigation of TB in the past 20 years, China is still the third largest contributor to the global burden of new TB cases, accounting for 833,000 new cases in 2019.Improved mitigation strategies, such as vaccines, diagnostics, and treatment, are needed to meet goals of WHO. Given the huge variability in the prevalence of TB across age groups in China, the vaccination, diagnostic techniques and treatment for different age groups may have different effects. Moreover, the data of TB cases show significant seasonal fluctuations in China. In this talk, I present a non-autonomous differential equation model with age structure and seasonal transmission rate. Our results show that vaccinating susceptible individuals whose ages are over 65 and between 20 and 24 is much more effective in reducing prevalence of TB. Although the improved strategies will significantly reduce the incidence rate of TB, it is challenging to achieve the goal of WHO by 2050.

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