报告题目：不同社交距离和口罩使用下控制新冠疫情所需的疫苗效果和覆盖率研究

报 告 人：沈明望 副教授 西安交通大学公共卫生学院

照    片：

邀 请 人：李善兵

报告时间：2020年11月17日（周二） 14：30-15：30

报告地点：西电南校区信远II区204

报告人简介：沈明望，现任西安交通大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系副教授。2017年12月获得西安交通大学williamhill威廉希尔官网应用数学博士学位。2015年至2017年在美国德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校生物统计系公派交流学习两年，于2016年4月获“徐宗本应用数学论文奖”(一等奖)。近3年主持项目6项，包括国家自然科学基金青年基金项目、中国博士后科学基金面上项目（一等资助）和新冠肺炎疫情防控专项资助、陕西省自然科学基础研究计划一般项目（青年）、中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助交叉类和应急类（新冠肺炎）。近5年以第一作者发表SCI论文12篇，包括医学期刊BMC Medicine、英国皇家学会生物期刊Proceedings of the Royal Society B:Biological Sciences、数学期刊Applied Mathematical Modelling等。主要研究方向为生物数学、理论流行病学、人工智能在医学中的应用等交叉学科研究，具体包括艾滋病、肝炎、流感、麻疹、新型冠状病毒肺炎等传染病以及胃癌、宫颈癌、糖尿病等慢性病的数学建模研究和卫生经济学评价。

报告摘要：Multiple candidates of COVID-19 vaccines have entered Phase III clinical trials in the United States (US). We developed a dynamic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission for the four most severely affected states (New York, Texas, Florida, and California). We evaluated the vaccine effectiveness and coverage required to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic in scenarios when social contact was to return to pre-pandemic levels and face mask use was reduced. If face mask use is reduced by 50%, a vaccine that is only 50% effective (weak vaccine) would require coverage of 55-94% to suppress the epidemic in these states. A vaccine that is 80% effective (moderate vaccine) would only require 32-57% coverage to suppress the epidemic. In contrast, if face mask usage stops completely, a weak vaccine would not suppress the epidemic, and further major outbreaks would occur. A moderate vaccine with coverage of 48-78% or a strong vaccine (100% effective) with coverage of 33-58% would be required to suppress the epidemic. Delaying vaccination rollout for 1-2 months would not substantially alter the epidemic trend if the current interventions are maintained. In conclusion, the degree to which the US population can relax social distancing restrictions and face mask use will depend greatly on the effectiveness and coverage of a potential COVID-19 vaccine if future epidemics are to be prevented. Only a highly effective vaccine will enable the US population to return to life as it was before the pandemic.