报告题目：Assessing the impact of meteorological on seasonal influenza outbreaks in Gansu Province, China

报 告 人：霍海峰 教授 兰州理工大学

照    片：

邀 请 人：常永奎 李善兵

报告时间：2020年11月8日（周日） 11：00-12：00

报告地点： 西电南校区信远II区206

报告人简介：霍海峰，兰州理工大学教授（博士），博士生导师，甘肃省领军人才，甘肃省数学学会副理事长。曾任研究生院副经理、科技处副处长，理学院经理。现任学科学位办主任。兰州理工大学应用数学研究所所长。应用微分方程学科带头人， 1992年6月陕西师范大学数学系本科毕业，2000年6月获陕西师范大学数学系理学硕士学位， 2006年6月获兰州大学williamhill威廉希尔官网博士学位，2007年晋升教授，2010年聘为博士生导师。2006年8月至2007年8月在美国Arizona State University做学术访问。多种SCI杂志审稿人。工科数学省级教学团队负责人。参加甘肃省精品课程《高等数学》建设。获霍英东教育基金会第九届高等院校青年教师奖，甘肃省高校青年教师成才奖，甘肃省优秀教师园丁奖。获甘肃省自然科学一等奖，甘肃省自然科学三等奖等多项奖励。主要在常微分方程、泛函微分方程及时滞差分方程，生物数学等领域开展研究工作，其中在SCI杂志上发表论文70余篇， 主持和完成国家自然基金3项，甘肃省杰出青年基金1项，教育部重点项目1项及省基金多项。并入选兰州理工大学首届红柳杰出人才，所负责的应用微分方程学科入选兰州理工大学红柳学科计划中的“特色学科提升计划”， 作为学校“十二五”重点支持的学科。非线性动力系统及应用作为红柳扶持学科方向入选十三五红柳一流团队建设项目。

报告摘要：Influenza usually breaks out seasonally in temperate regions, especially in winter, infection rates and mortality rates of influenza increase significantly, which means that dry air and cold temperatures accelerate the spread of influenza viruses. However, the meteorological factors that contribute to the seasonal outbreak of influenza and how these meteorological factors play a decisive role in the spread of influenza remain unclear. By analyzing the collected data, there is a statistically significant correlation between the number of influenza cases and several meteorological factors. A new non-autonomous periodic differential equation model with meteorological factors is proposed. The basic reproduction number is obtained. The global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium is proved. The existence of periodic solutions and the uniformly persistence of the model are demonstrated. The best-fit parameter values in our model are identified by the MCMC algorithm from the collected data. To determine the key parameters of the model, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are explored by using LHS (Latin Hypercube Sampling) method and the PRCCs (partial rank correlation coefficients) method. Our results show that influenza is more likely to spread in low temperature, low humidity and low Preciptation environments. In addition, Temperature is a more important factor than Relative Humidity and Preciptation during the influenza epidemic.